Friday, November 21, 2008

Great Recession?

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10449144/1/kass-times-running-out-for-a-rally.html

1. Six trillion dollars of wealth has been lost in home prices over the last year and a half.
2. Eighteen trillion dollars of wealth has been lost in global equities in only seven weeks.
3. Deleveraging continues to restrict accessibility to credit.
4. Job losses are accelerating.

And I would like to add:

5. Economic data has been revised, it looks like the worst is yet to come.
6. Still waiting for the losses from derivatives to come in... they've been held in check by US policy, but they haven't actually disappeared.
7. The recession has spread GLOBALLY. Local recessions are relatively easier to solve... just do more business with the rich nations, albeit at slightly disadvantageous terms. Global recession... what are you going to do?
8. Earnings figures are definitely going to be down. Price Earnings ratios are currently based on historical values... ie the earnings are based on an unrealistically high figure! At this point in time, US companies are trading at 20 times PE. But if their earnings drop in 1/2 next year, that means they are trading at 40 times! Companies that have historically given good dividends are going to cut or eliminate these dividends.
9. It has been overlooked, but the shipping industry is in trouble. And logistics problems invariably lead to supply problems. Apparently some shipments are getting stuck at ports. I think that the effect from this will not be TOO huge... probably just a few billion or so... might seem like a lot, but nowadays we're talking about trillions, 3 orders of magnitude, dude.
10. Bad Debt. It might seem like a lot now. But what do you think happens to bad debt during a recession/ depression? It BALLOONS. You think those debts look toxic right now? It's going to be like wading through Sarin Gas a few months down the road, if all those jobless people don't get rehired. ... BTW, just to be clear... most of them won't.
11. Russia. And other troubled economies/ financials. If they start defaulting, I have no idea what sort of financial disaster that would be... who knows what derivatives have been tied to Russia's default. Speaking of that, what happened to Iceland?

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