Petronas might become a LOSS making company!!!

Let's look at the company which contributes 44% of Malaysian government's revenue in 2008:

http://www.petronas.com/internet/corp/centralrep2.nsf/Src/WebDoc*Investor+Relations+Default/?Open

In 2007, Petronas revenue was RM184billion, expenses 108b, profit before tax 76b.
In 2008, Revenue RM228b, expenses 118b, profit before tax 95b.

FY2008 FY2007 FY2006 FY2005 FY2004
Revenue 223.1 184.1 167.4 137.0 97.5
Profit Before Tax 95.5 76.3 69.4 58.0 37.4


Not included in annual report but easily calculated:
(Expenses) 127.6 107.8 98.0 79.0 60.1

You can see that expenses are going up 10billlion each year.
You also notice that Petronas is cunningly leaving out the expense section in their annual report, hoping to exploit the fact that many people have poor mental arithmetic.
This is not surprising, since our malaysian governments entire BUDGET 2008 was 177 billion. And these champions in Petronas expenses in 2008 was 128 billion.


If we assume that last year they were selling oil at USD120 (which is cheap considering that it was over USD 155 for a while)
If we assume that they will be selling oil at USD 55, their revenue for 2009 and will be HALVED to RM110b (their revenue in 2004 was only 97.5billion. So this is not unrealistic)

In other words... Assuming expenses for Petronas stay constant (no lay offs, no cancelling of projects, etc). (In fact the way they are trying to expand, expenses are projected to go up yet another year, to over 120b! )
Petronas is expected to go from a profit of 95B to a loss of RM10billion in 2009!

Edit: Btw, for those who have been saying that expenses might drop accordingly... wrong. Normally, for a company, when revenue drops in half, it means that SALES in UNITS have dropped in half. So it is expected that costs would drop accordingly, since production has halved. In this case, it is SELLING PRICE that has dropped by over 60%.
For an easier to understand example, imagine if you have an accounting firm, and the government announces: Effective immediately, ALL accounting fees charged will be cut by 60%. Losses to be borne by the firms themselves.
Having your final sale price for your product cut by half is far far far worse than having your sales figures cut in half. It's a DISASTER of epic proportions.

This is a complete disaster for our country, if there isn't some sort of huge mistake here. Checking with some other independant analysts, my projected figures appear sound, so it is looking more and more likely that this will materialize.
I'm really really surprised that Lim Kit Siang hasn't got his people investigating this.

Maybe the accountants and analysts see something that I don't. Maybe Petronas has a lot of long term oil contracts. Which actually brings out a whole other barrel of fish, but whatever...
I DEMAND that Petronas provide some transparency!

Remember, as I said, Petronas contributed 44% of government revenue in 2008.
http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/11/12/parliament/2518320&sec=parliament

Abdullah talking about our fundamentals still being strong. How strong will our fundamentals be if government income is reduced by 44%?
How will our economy handle the shock of around 100billion in income just disappearing?
If this is true, Malaysia will not only go into a recession next year... it will be SEVERE. Our GNP is less than RM800billion. So... 100billion lost revenue by petronas would be a recessionary drop of 12%. That's rather ridiculously large!

EDIT: Everyone has been asking why government has not reduced our Petrol Prices.
It's BLARDY OBVIOUS when looked at it from this angle.
We Rakyat are subsiding Petronas. If gov drops petrol too much, Petronas is gonna lose too much money. Therefore, it is up to us, the Rakyat, to bear the burden. By paying USD90 for our oil, from our own BLARDY GLC Petronas.
I am an ANGRY INVESTOR!!!!

Bankruptcy

Charlie Rose gave a very very good interview:

http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/9498


His point partway is: America, and in fact the whole world, ALREADY has a very very good and very very established way to deal with an individual or corporation that has debts that it simply cannot afford to handle. It's called BANKRUPTY.

People panic when they hear the word. But in actual fact, bankruptcy is not "death". Bankruptcy in fact is the beginning of the entire healing process. It stops the bleeding.
Of course bankruptcy also comes with some pretty stiff penalties attached, but it also has benefits. And very often, the benefits actually outweigh these penalties.

Agent Zero/Rocket Rod

Excerpts taken from http://www.thestreet.com/story/10447426/1/analyst-does-a-u-turn-on-gm.html

A Deutsche Bank analyst recently came out with a price target for General Motors: zero

Who was this man? Rod Lache

Let's take a lo0k back to a few years ago.

In July 2005, when automobile sales hit a record thanks to heavy promotional activity, Agent Zero was quoted prominently in a New York Times story. "'The industry is on fire,'" Lache said.

Less than a year later: "Dow Reaches 6-Year High After Analyst Upgrades G.M." "G.M. rose $2.25, to $25.80, after Rod Lache, an analyst for Deutsche Bank, raised the stock one notch to hold, citing progress with its revamping and recent moves to generate liquidity."

February of 2007, Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache raised his rating on GM and Ford to buy from hold, saying that there is an 'increasingly high probability that U.S. automakers will be able to restructure and settle their retiree healthcare obligations at a discount"

September 2007, "Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache reiterated to clients in a note that if GM is able to reach a deal to shed billions in retiree health-care liabilities and shield itself from future health-care inflation, the stock could break into the $50 range."

January 2008: Agent Zero/Rocket Rod was quoted as saying that automakers had already priced in a recession, and said General Motors was a safe investment.

November 2008: Rod Lache declares that General Motors has a Target Price of ZERO.


Conclusion: Rod Lache. You SUCK. You suck ASS.

Treasury Bailout is FAILING

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10447356/1/treasury-mulls-private-role-in-tarp-report.html

Some excerpts:

"Treasury also is unlikely to conduct any auctions to purchase bad loans and other troubled assets -- the original intention of the $700 billion rescue plan. Instead, Treasury is expected to continue focusing on injecting capital directly into the financial sector, the Journal reports."

"Treasury has just $60 billion left in its rescue fund, and either the current or next administration will have to turn to Congress to request the second half of the promised $700 billion, the Journal reports. Treasury has so far committed $250 billion to banks and is spending an additional $40 billion to buy preferred shares in American International Group"

...
...
...

These IDIOTS are running out of money.

A LOT of people said 700b was a lot of money. A LOT of people said that 700b was not enough.

Looks like they were right.

Well, DUH, it's not enough, when you totally disregard the initial purpose of the bailout and use it in ways it was never meant to be used!!!

It is starting to look VEEEEEERY suspicious to meeee.... If I was American, I would request that someone starts looking at the PERSONAL BANK BALANCES of all those decision makers for Treasury/Fed. Is it coincidence that the money is going to really really rich fellas that can afford to pay whopping huge bribes?

...

You know what? ... all those homeowners with their mortages and loans? Who were cheering and celebrating when this 700b bailout was announced?

They are crying right now. They are going to lose their homes and they are well and probably going to go hungry the next few years. And declare bankruptcy.

Cause the money that was meant to go to them is going to go to America's BANKS. The Large Rich Banks. Specifically, it is going to end up paying for CEO bonuses for their "wonderful" job performance.

Too Large to Fail? That's the catchword going around lately.

Too BIG to be allowed to Fall?

How about: Too small to fail?
As in... the little fellas. The many MANY little fellas. Who are in fact the FOUNDATIONS of your country compared to the corporate figureheads on the top.
If American Government does not help them, who will?
Seriously, why can't Goldman Sachs go and get a 10b loan from China, 10b from Brunei and 10b from selling bonds internationally?
But poor Joe Six Pack... no one outside the USA is going to save him!

Which do you think hurts the country more:

5000 multimillionaires losing 10 million each?
Or 1,000,000 Average Joes losing 50,000 each?

I don't know the answer myself... but I do have my suspicions!
My theory is... the rich can afford to lose a lot of money. They'll still keep their homes, have enough to eat, and frankly, you know that a few years after the recession ends, they'll have earned it all back.
Those million upon millions of low-middle income citizens? They are going to SUFFER. And their children will feel the lingering effects as they will likely not be able to recover from these losses before their children are born and working.

America. Fed. Treasury. You DUMBASSES